ZCZC MKCSWODY1
ACUS1 KMKC 040051
MKC AC 040051

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0196...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW NUMBER 0197...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW NUMBER 0198...VALID TIL 0500Z
REF WW NUMBER 0199...VALID TIL 0500Z
REF WW NUMBER 0200...VALID TIL 0500Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NRN OK..PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN KS...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MLC 40 SSE
OKC 35 WSW OKC 35 SW END P28 20 W SLN 10 WSW MHK 30 ESE EMP 20 ESE
BVO 30 W MKO 25 WNW MLC.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS..OK
..NRN/NWRN TX..AND A SMALL PART OF SRN NEB...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 40 SSE PRX 50 SE DAL 20 SSW SEP 30 S ABI 45 NW ABI 50 SSW LTS
20 NE LTS 55 NNE CSM 15 WSW P28 40 S EAR 30 E HSI FNB 25 SSW OJC 15
SW JLN 10 WSW PGO 40 SSE PRX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW BIS 50 WSW DVL 30 SSW TVF 20 WSW FRM 20 NE MKC 10 SE UMN
40 W HOT 10 E GGG CLL 30 WSW HDO 70 WSW SJT 65 SSW CDS 45 S DDC
25 S MCK 60 ENE CDR 25 WNW BIS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 55 SE DLH
30 E DBQ 20 ESE BLV 45 ENE GWO 25 ESE MCB 45 SW HUM ...CONT...
35 E PSX 20 NNW NIR 30 NW LRD 40 E P07 10 SSW BGS 65 WSW GAG
15 SSE CAO 30 E ABQ 50 ENE INW 40 S P38 30 NE BAM 40 SSW BKE
30 WSW PUW 60 ENE 63S.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...SRN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/TRACK NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK AND INTO SRN KS AT THIS TIME.  OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS
MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS INDICATE LARGE LAPSE RATES OVERRIDING DEEP
MOIST AXIS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT THREAT
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST MAINLY FROM OK NWD INTO KS AND
PARTS OF SRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NWD. 
FARTHER SOUTH...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO PERSISTED ALONG DRY
LINE INTO WRN TX WHICH WILL ALSO DEVELOP EWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS TX.  

WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION...DRY LINE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.  AS UVV/S SHIFT
EWD...CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS EWD
INTO NWRN/NRN TX AND OK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SQUALL LINE LATE IN PERIOD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

...CENTRAL INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
INCREASING DEEP LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE DAKOTAS.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
IF LINE OF STORMS CAN FORM ALONG APPROACHING N-S ORIENTED COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
 
..EVANS.. 05/04/99


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