ZCZC MKCSWODY1 ACUS1 KMKC 040051 MKC AC 040051 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 040100Z - 041200Z REF WW NUMBER 0196...VALID TIL 0400Z REF WW NUMBER 0197...VALID TIL 0400Z REF WW NUMBER 0198...VALID TIL 0500Z REF WW NUMBER 0199...VALID TIL 0500Z REF WW NUMBER 0200...VALID TIL 0500Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NRN OK..PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MLC 40 SSE OKC 35 WSW OKC 35 SW END P28 20 W SLN 10 WSW MHK 30 ESE EMP 20 ESE BVO 30 W MKO 25 WNW MLC. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS..OK ..NRN/NWRN TX..AND A SMALL PART OF SRN NEB...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PRX 50 SE DAL 20 SSW SEP 30 S ABI 45 NW ABI 50 SSW LTS 20 NE LTS 55 NNE CSM 15 WSW P28 40 S EAR 30 E HSI FNB 25 SSW OJC 15 SW JLN 10 WSW PGO 40 SSE PRX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BIS 50 WSW DVL 30 SSW TVF 20 WSW FRM 20 NE MKC 10 SE UMN 40 W HOT 10 E GGG CLL 30 WSW HDO 70 WSW SJT 65 SSW CDS 45 S DDC 25 S MCK 60 ENE CDR 25 WNW BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 55 SE DLH 30 E DBQ 20 ESE BLV 45 ENE GWO 25 ESE MCB 45 SW HUM ...CONT... 35 E PSX 20 NNW NIR 30 NW LRD 40 E P07 10 SSW BGS 65 WSW GAG 15 SSE CAO 30 E ABQ 50 ENE INW 40 S P38 30 NE BAM 40 SSW BKE 30 WSW PUW 60 ENE 63S. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...SRN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND INTO SRN KS AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS INDICATE LARGE LAPSE RATES OVERRIDING DEEP MOIST AXIS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST MAINLY FROM OK NWD INTO KS AND PARTS OF SRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NWD. FARTHER SOUTH...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO PERSISTED ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN TX WHICH WILL ALSO DEVELOP EWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS TX. WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION...DRY LINE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS UVV/S SHIFT EWD...CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO NWRN/NRN TX AND OK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SQUALL LINE LATE IN PERIOD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...CENTRAL INTO THE NRN PLAINS... INCREASING DEEP LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IF LINE OF STORMS CAN FORM ALONG APPROACHING N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. ..EVANS.. 05/04/99 NNNN