FPUS3 KFTW 171458  
SFDFTW  
  
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
958 AM CDT WED AUG 17 1994  
  
MRNG ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS  
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACRS NWRN AND CNTRL AREAS.  14Z SFC ANALYSIS  
SHOWS THAT REMNANTS OF SFC FNT NOW SHOWS UP AS DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY  
BNDRY FM SWRN OK TO N OF DFW TO TYR.  COMPARING 00Z GRIDDED DATA FCST  
TO 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES.  FIRST THE 700 MB  
TEMP FCST WAS 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WRM OVR SRN OK AND NRN TX AND SECONDLY  
THE 500 MB TEMP FCST WAS ALSO TOO WRM BY A FEW DEGREES.  THUS THE CAP  
STRENGTH FCST BY THE MODELS LAST NGT MAY NOT BE AS STG AND THE INSTABILITIES  
ARE HIGHER THAN SHOWN LAST NGT AS SEEN ON THE FWD SOUNDING THIS MRNG.  
MEANWHILE THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATL ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE  
MOVING ACRS ERN OK WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OVR CNTRL KS WITH A 500 MB  
THERMAL TROF OVR WRN KS.  BOTH 00Z ETA AND NGM MODELS INDICATED 700 MB  
Q-VECTOR FORCING DVLPG OVR NRN AREAS OF N TX BY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS  
EVENING.  LATEST ADAP ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW MOISTURE CONVG ALONG  
DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FM THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN ZNS WITH LI'S ALREADY  
BLO -4.  SHARP SHOWS THAT AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AT FWD WL BREAK CAPPING  
INVERSION.  THUS WITH ALL OF THE ABV FACTORS WL INTRO ISOLATED  
TSTMS INTO WRN AND NC ZNS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  CAPES  
ARE FCSTD TO BE OVR 3000 LATE THIS AFTN AND WITH 25-30 KT FLOW  
IN THE MID-LVLS WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED  
SVR STORM.  
  
.FTW...OZONE ADVISORY THIS AFTN DFW AND TYR/GGG AREAS.  
  
RK