FPUS3 KLBB 170813  
SFDLBB  
  
WEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
310 AM CDT WED AUG 17 1994  
  
A COUPLE OF INTERESTING THINGS TO LOOK AT ON AN OTHERWISE WX NIL  
MORNING.  STUDYING SAT PIC LUP OF IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION  
PRESENTLY DYING OVER XTRM SERN CO DVLPD EARLIER IN RESPONSE TO VORT LOBE  
WHICH WAS SHEARING EWD ACRS WRN SD AND WRN NE AT 05Z (SEE SIMMKC/CSM).   
THIS ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE FOR THE MOST PART BY  
VALID TIME OF THIS PACKAGE.  ONLY OTHER CLOUDS AROUND FA ARE LOCATED  
OVER CONCHO/BIG COUNTRY WHERE PATCH OF AC WAS MOVING NWWD AND OVER FAR  
WEST TX WHERE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING  
FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER AZ AND NRN MEX.  
  
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SHIFTING SW US HIGH EWD TO BE CNTRD OVER NM  
BY 48 HOURS.  CORRESPONDING INCREASES IN HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL  
TEMPS/SUBSIDENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF SFC TROF ALNG TX/NM BORDER  
(DOWNSLOPE) WILL MEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  ONLY  
POTENTIAL FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  
NRN US STREAM WHICH COULD DEVELOP SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY FRM ERN CO NWD.  THESE STORMS  
COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF PNHDLS TONIGHT SO PROBABLY WILL PLACE SOME  
ISOLATED STUFF THERE.  700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE ON THE INCREASE  
RESULTING IN MEGA CAP OVER MOST OF REGION BY THURSDAY SO WON'T INCLUDE  
ANY POPS PAST THIS EVENING FOR THE PNHDLS.  GRIDDED DATA ALSO INDICATED  
AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEX/SRN NM/AZ BY 48 HOURS  
IMPINGING ON THE FAR WEST.  WILL GO WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THERE  
THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT BEING A 0 OR 30 PERCENT POP GUY IN  
LATER PERIODS, WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS ATTM OUT WEST.  
  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WILL BE HARD TO  
BEAT.  WENT WITH WARMER NUMBERS IN MOST INSTANCES AFTER BEING ON THE LOW  
SIDE OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY.  CUT HIGHS BACK ACROSS FAR WEST A TAD FOR  
THURSDAY BASED ON A FEW MORE CLOUDS.     
  
ALWAYS READY TO HERE CONCERNS ABOUT AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO.    
  
FIRST RUN AT NUMBERS:   
  
LBB 98/70/98 000   MAF 99/70/98 000  
SJT 98/71/99 000   ELP 100/73/98 00-  
  
.LBB...NONE.  
.OK...NONE.  
  
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