ACUS1 KMKC 170642  
SWODY1  
MKC AC 170700  
  
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O  
  
VALID 171200 - 181200Z  
  
REF WW 736...VALID UNTIL 0800Z.  
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 20 NE ECG  
30 N MYR FLO 15 SW CLT PSK 20 NW CXY 30 SSW MSV JFK.  
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM GCK  
35 N 1K5 4LJ BFF 20 NW RAP 60 NW P05 20 S ABR 40 WNW RWF  
15 NW OTG 20 NW SUX BUB 30 SW BBW GCK.  
  
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 SW IPL 45 E NID MLF  
U17 10 NW GJT 15 NNW RKS 20 S FCA 4OM 50 E BLI ...CONT...  
70 W D45 55 SW IWD AUW 30 W JVL MLI 3OI FNB SLN 30 E DDC  
25 SE LBL 30 SW 1K5 35 NNW TCC 20 W 4CR ELP ...CONT...45 SE DRT  
TPL MLU TCL 35 N ATL 30 NW HSS UNI 30 NNE BUF.  
  
REMNANTS OF TROP STORM BERYL ARE PROGD TO CONTINUE MOVG NNEWD OVER  
THE APPALACHIANS TWD CNTRL PA BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. 00Z ETA  
INITIAL LOCATION FOR LOW LVL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO FAR W IN  
AL...SO FCST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO FIT EXPCD PATH FROM NE GA TO  
CNTRL PA. LOW/MID LVL WINDS ARE PROGD TO REMAIN STG THROUGH THE  
PD...CONTRIBUTING TO STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 150-300 J/KG  
RANGE. COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY (CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG BASED ON MAX TEMPS LOW/MID 80S  
AND DEWPTS LWR 70S) SHUD SUPPORT MESOCYCLONES AND AN ASSOCIATED  
THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SVR THREAT SHUD BE  
ALG THE REMNANTS OF THE BNDRY JUST OF E THE APPALACHIANS AND NE OF  
THE SFC LOW WHERE LOW LVL SHEAR/CNVGNC WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MOST OF  
THE SVR ACTIVITY SHUD BE CLOSELY LINKED TO DIABATIC  
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN HRS. THE  
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FOR REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
MESOCYCLONES IS IN QUESTION AS IS THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION  
THAT WILL OCCUR FM CNTRL VA INTO CNTRL PA...THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP  
AREA IN A SLGT RISK ATTM.  
  
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF CNTRL PLAINS SLGT RISK AREA IS LOW ATTM.  
ETA FCSTS DESTABILIZATION AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD FM  
TX...BUT ALSO INCLUDES A FORMIDABLE CAP ACRS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHUD BE ALG THE  
W AND NWRN EDGE OF THE CAP FM ERN CO INTO SWRN SD. LOW LVL WINDS  
AND CNVNGC ARE PROGD TO BE WK...BUT DEGREE OF  
INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MID LVL DRY AIR  
ALL SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF LRG HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WITH ANY STORMS  
THAT DO DEVELOP.  
  
DID NOT INCLUDE AZ IN OUTLOOK DUE TO EXPCD DEBRIS FM CONVECTION  
THIS MORNING (REDUCED HEATING THIS AFTN) AND ONLY MARGINALLY  
FAVORABLE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES FOR DRY MICROBURSTS. ANOTHER AREA  
THAT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS IS SE TX. LRG FCST CAPES  
AND DRY AIR IN MID LVLS SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF DMGG WINDS...BUT DO  
NOT BELIEVE THE SVR THREAT WARRANTS A SLGT RISK ATTM.  
  
..THOMPSON.. 08/17/94