ACUS2 KMKC 170748  
SWODY2  
MKC DY2 170800  
  
2ND DAY SEVERE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH98O  
  
VALID 181200 - 191200Z ..GEN TSTM FCST NOT INCLUDED..  
  
THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 E ACY DOV  
BWI 15 E HGR IPT 30 WNW PBG ...CONT...CAR AUG BOS ISP.  
  
THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM AMA 1K5 P05  
25 S Y26 ABR 30 WSW STC MSP 25 W LSE ALO DSM MHK ICT END LTS CDS  
AMA.  
  
REMNANTS OF BERYL EXPCD TO CONT MOVG NNEWD ACRS MID ATLC STATES AND  
THE NERN U.S. TMW AHD OF UPR TROF PROGD EWD ACRS THE GRTLKS. STG  
WINDS ALF ASSOCD WITH REMNANTS ARE EXPCD TO PERSIST WITH 40-50 KT  
LOW LVL JET LIFTING NEWD FM THE DELMARVA INTO NEW ENG. THIS WILL  
CREATE STG LOW LVL SHEAR AND FVRBL HODOGRAPH TO ENHANCE PTNL FOR  
STG/SVR CNVTN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABT THE AMT OF INSTBY THAT  
WILL BE AVBL DUE TO CLDS/PCPN REDUCING DIURNAL HEATING...BUT BLV  
SUFFICIENT INSTBY WILL EXIST FOR CNVTN TO DVLP. GIVEN THE STRENGTH  
OF THE VERT SHEAR ISOLD SVR TSTMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE  
PSBL...MAINLY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE PD.  
  
MODELS INDC UPR SHRTWV TROF OVR THE PAC NW WILL MOVE EWD ACRS THE  
NRN PLAINS TMW. CONTD WK SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL ALLOW A GRDL INCR OF  
MSTR NWD THRU THE PLAINS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVR THE AREA WILL  
RESULT IN AMS BCMG MDTLY UNSTBL WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6 TO  
MINUS 8 AND CAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. WK CNVGNC ALG SFC TROF LN  
EXTENDING FM THE DAKS SWD INTO TX PNHDL...AND ALG WRMFNT FM SRN SD  
INTO SRN MN EXPCD TO PROVIDE LOW LVL FOCUS FOR CNVTV DVLPMNT. STG  
INSTBY...DRY AIR ALF...AND STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HGT SUG  
PSBLTY OF STGR CELLS BCMG SVR TMW AFTN AND EVE.  
  
..WEISS.. 08/17/94