ACUS1 KMKC 171422 SWODY1 MKC AC 171500 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O VALID 171500 - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 35 E CHS 25 ENE SPA SSU 20 NW MRB 15 E AVP POU 30 SSW GON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 60 WNW CDR 20 W REJ 15 NE ABR 10 SE ATY 25 E BBW 15 S BFF 60 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 25 WSW IPL EDW 50 N NID MLF 4BL RKS BIL 35 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 65 N GFK 40 ESE DLH 35 NW MBL MKG 30 NW PIA HUT 20 N CSM 30 WNW MWL LFK 20 SE MEI AUO 30 NW AND 30 SW CRW BUF 20 NE UCA ORH HYA. REMNANTS OF T.S. BERYL CONTS TO MOV NEWD TWDS WV. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CNVTV BAND ASSOCD WITH CNTR FM SRN WV THRU CNTRL NC TO E CNTRL SC ROTATING ENEWD 20 KT. OTR SGFNT BNDRY IS WRM FNT WHICH EXTDS FM CNTR ACRS SRN VA. 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS STG TURNING IN THE LOW LVLS WITH SNDGS IN VCNTY SHOWG TYPICAL TROPICAL SHEAR PROFILE. 14Z VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLRG IS BGNG TO OCR IN WRM SECTOR ACRS ERN NC INTO S CNTRL AND SERN VA. LOW LVL SSE/SELY WNDS ARE BGNG TO INCR IN WRM SECTOR SUGG DVLPMT OF STG/SVR TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY TO OCR OVR NEXT 2-3 HRS AND THEN CONT NEWD DURG AFTN AND EVE HRS. AMS EXPCD TO DESTABILIZE NWD ACRS DELMARVA INTO NJ AS SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENGLAND RETREATS EWD AND WRM FNT OVR SRN VA LIFTS NWD. FEATURES LESS CLR OVR PLAINS. MRNG RAOBS SHOW 40-50 KT MID LVL WINDS ACRS THE NRN RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AMS RMNS MDTLY UNSTBL. NEW ETA FCST WK SFC BNDRY TO EXTD E-W ACRS SD. EXPC ISOLD SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN OVR BLACK HILLS RGN AND THEN MOV/DVLP E/ESEWD NR SFC BNDRY ACRS SD/NRN NE. MRNG STLT/LTG DATA SHOWS TSTMS OVR CO MOVG ESEWD. 12Z DEN RAOB SHOWS FAVORABLE INVERTED-VEE PROFILE...BUT UPSTREAM GJT RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING OCRG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MID/UPR LVL DRYING MOVG TWDS ERN CO WHICH SHOULD DRY AMS AND REDUCE DOWNBURST THREAT IN ERN CO. AMS RMNS UNSTBL ACRS SRN AZ THIS MRNG IN WAKE OF CNVTV COMPLEX. MID/UPR LVL FLOW HAS BCM MORE ELY/SELY THIS MRNG AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS TWDS 4 CRNRS. DEBRIS EXPCD TO LIMIT AMT OF SFC HEATING ACRS SRN AZ THIS MRNG...HWVR WILL CONT TO MONITOR SRN HALF OF STATE FOR PSBL UPGRADING IN AFTN AC. ..HIRT.. 08/17/94