ACUS1 KMKC 171939     COR  
MKC AC 171940 COR...COR 3RD SLGT RISK AREA TO GENRL THUNDER  
  
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O  
  
VALID 171940 - 181200Z  
  
REF WW 737...VALID UNTIL 2300Z.  
REF WW 738...VALID UNTIL 0000Z.  
REF WW 739...VALID UNTIL 0200Z.  
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM MYR  
35 SW FLO 30 N FLO SOP 15 SE DAN 20 WNW LYH 30 SE EKN 15 NW HGR  
20 SSE AVP 15 ESE POU JFK.  
  
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM LBF  
25 S BUB 20 NE GRI 30 WSW BIE 25 SE SLN 35 NE OKC 15 NE DUA  
40 SW PRX 45 SW TYR 20 SSE TPL 50 S BWD 10 W ABI CDS 30 ESE LBL  
40 SW HLC LBF.  
  
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM SAN 20 W RIV 15 SW PMD  
20 W BFL 20 ESE FAT 20 E TPH 35 NNE U24 15 E EVW 35 SSW LVM  
55 NW FCA ...CONT...OSC 25 E MMO 45 N SGF 25 E FYV 15 W ELD  
25 NNW MEI 25 ESE ANB 50 E CHA 10 E JKL ERI ...CONT...ART MPV PWM.  
  
SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH REMNANTS OF BERYL CURRENTLY (18Z ANALYSIS)  
LOCATED OVER SRN WV/EXTREME WRN VA AND APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY  
FILLING AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE APLCNS. BAND OF STGR SLY LWR/MID  
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF SYS IS PROPAGATING NWD THRU  
THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 50 KT RANGE. WITH  
MOIST...UNSTABLE (CAPE VALUES 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG) SELY SFC FLOW  
TO THE E/NE OF THE LOW...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (SHEAR  
VECTOR VEERING) REMAINS QUITE PRONOUNCED ACRS THE DELMARVA/ERN  
VA/EXTREME ERN NC. THIS SUG POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTS AS  
CNVTN MOVES ACRS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.  
  
ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE  
AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. DWPTS IN THE MID 60S  
AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL KS ATTM...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG TO  
4000 J/KG ACRS OUTLOOK AREA. STG/SVR CNVTN HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ON  
ERN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING CAP ACRS S CNTRL KS/N CNTRL OK. VERTICAL  
SHEAR ACRS THIS REGION FVRBL FOR ORGANIZED SVR CNVTN WITH SGFNT LOW  
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND STG NWLY UPR JET ENHANCING SHEAR THRU  
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER. CNVTN EXPCD TO REMAIN SVR AS IT PROPAGATES  
SSEWD THRU MOIST AXIS INTO NERN TX.  
  
..KERR.. 08/17/94