ZCZC OKCHMDTUR TTAA00 KTUR 121512 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 1997 ...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION... MOST OF THE ABRFC BASIN RECEIVED RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE ONLY AREAS THAT DID NOT WERE ALONG THE EXTREME WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE ABRFC BASIN. MOST OF THE BASIN GOT LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUTS WERE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANLES...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE TOTALS RANGED FROM 1.50 INCHES UP TO 4.00 INCHES. ALSO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI RECEIVED RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED CORES EXCEEDING 5 INCHES NEAR CLAREMORE OK AND SOUTHEAST OF FLORENCE KS. SOME HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 12Z INCLUDE: BURNS KS 5.61 INCHES CLAREMORE OK 5.30 INCHES RAMONA OK 3.43 INCHES OOLOGAH OK 2.95 INCHES SPAVINAW LAKE 2.93 INCHES COLLINSVILLE OK 2.87 INCHES ...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES NEAR LA JUNTA CO ON THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND ALSO AT KENTON OK ON THE CIMARRON RIVER WHERE THE STAGE CONTINUES OVER FLOOD STAGE BUT SHOULD DROP THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT HEADRICK ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE RED RIVER THE RIVER CONTINUES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODERATE RISES HAVE OCCURRED ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN UNDER THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT SO FAR RISES ARE REMAINING BELOW ACTION AND FLOOD STAGES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PRODUCED ONLY MINOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. ...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE THE AREAS OF EASTERN OK AND KS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DROP INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA GIVING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ABRFC A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY. THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ABRFC BASIN ALONG WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD ENOUGH TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE ABRFC BASIN AND GIVE RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS GIVE .75 - 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW .75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ABRFC BASIN. HOWEVER...HIGHER CORES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER LOCALIZED AREAS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINS AND THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS GIVING WAY TO MCS EVENTS. ...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT EXCEDING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE AREAS AND THEREFORE LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS ALWAYS A EYE SHOULD BE KEPT ON SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES JUST IN CASE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. ...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES) AND QPF... SOUTHEAST KANSAS: NONE SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE NORTH TEXAS: NONE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE JLM NNNN