ZCZC OKCHMDTUR
TTAA00 KTUR 131454 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
955 AM CDT WED AUG 13 1997  


...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...     
     

...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...

WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND 
A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THE ABRFC BASIN RECEIVED ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN THE PAST 24 HOURS. HEAVIER CORES INTO THE 1.50 - 2.50 INCH 
RANGE OCCURED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND ALSO
EAST OF A PAULS VALLEY TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE IN OKLAHOMA. SMALL AND 
INTENSE CORES FELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH RADAR 
ESTIMATING A FEW SPOTS WITH OVER 4 INCHES WHILE A FEW AREAS IN 
COLORADO HAD UP TO 2 INCHES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN GOT
LESS THAN AND INCH OF RAIN.
       
             
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... 

AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE RIVERS WITH HIGH WATER OR STAGES ABOVE 
ACTION AND FLOOD STAGES ARE IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN
ALONG THE RED RIVER AT BURKBURNETT TX WHILE HEADRICK OK HAS NOW
FALLEN BELOW ACTION STAGE. ALSO THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM LA JUNTA CO
DOWNSTREAM TO THE KANSAS STATE LINE AND A TRIBUTARY TO THE ARKANSAS
THE PURGATORIRE RIVER AT LAS ANIMAS CO ARE HAVING HIGH WATER WITH SOME 
POINTS ABOVE ACTION AND FLOOD STAGES...AND COOLIDGE AND SYRACUSE KS
ARE FORECAST TO TO REACH FLOOD AND ACTION STAGE RESPECTIVELY DUE TO 
THE ROUTED WATER COMING DOWN THE ARKANSAS FROM THE COLORADO POINTS.

RIVERS OVER THE REST OF THE ABRFC BASIN HAVE NOT HAD AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE RAIN THE PAST 24 HOURS.



...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT STALLED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN 
EXPECTED IN THE IDABEL OK TO TEXARKANA TX AREA. RAINS OF .25 - .75 
INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FT SMITH AR TO 
MC ALESTER OK TO SHERMAN TX LINE AND ALSO WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREAT BEND KS TO GUYMON OK TO CHILDRESS TX. THE REST OF THE ABRFC
BASIN IS NOT FORECAST TO RECIEVE MUCH IF ANY RAIN...HOWEVER
WITH THE SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE A FEW 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP.


...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED 
TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING.  THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER 
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT EXCEDING 
THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE AREAS AND THEREFORE LOW 
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 


...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
   BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES)
   AND QPF...


 SOUTHEAST KANSAS:  NONE 

 SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE

 NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE
 
 SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE
 
 PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE
 
 NORTH TEXAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE

 SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE

JLM

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