ZCZC OKCHMDTUR
TTAA00 KTUR 141453 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
950 AM CDT THU AUG 14 1997  


...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...     
     

...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RAIN FELL OVER MOST OF THE ABRFC BASIN WITH
THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FORM CHANUTE KS TO ENID OK
TO GUYMON OK TO GOODLAND KS AND ALSO A NARROW STRIP BETWEEN SHERMAN
TX AND ARDMORE OK NORTHEAST TOWARD DARDANELLE AR. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN FELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE AREAS RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES FELL. 
CORES IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ALSO FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN 
PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH A RADAR ESTIMATED MAX CORE UP TO 4 INCHES
FALLING IN MC CURTAIN COUNTY NORTHWEST OF GLOVER OK. A FEW OTHER 
ISOLATED 1-2 INCH CORES EXISTED NEAR COOLIDGE KS AND OVER IN NEW 
MEXICO NEAR TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS...RATON AND EDGEWOOD. OTHERWISE THE 
REST OF THE ABRFC BASIN RECEIVED RAINS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH.

             
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... 

THE RED RIVER AT BURKBURNETT TX AS WELL AS THE ARKANSAS RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH WATER.
AT BURKBURNETT TX...COOLIDGE KS...AND LA JUNTA CO THE RIVERS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WHILE OTHER POINTS ON THE ARKANSAS RIVER
ARE ABOVE ACTION STAGE. OTHERWISE RIVERS IN THE ABRFC AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY HAD SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISES BUT ARE NOT CAUSING ANY
PROBLEMS. 


...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE ABRFC BASIN HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES. HOWEVER THE RAINS THAT ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE
QPF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE CALLING FOR LESS THAN AN INCH OF 
RAIN FOR THE WHOLE ABRFC BASIN AND THUS NO ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH 
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN
GENERAL THE QPF IS CALLING FOR .25 -.50 INCH OF RAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE BASIN WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.


...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD NOT 
CAUSE ANY FLOODING.  THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER 
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT EXCEDING 
THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE AREAS AND THEREFORE LOW 
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 


...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
   BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES)
   AND QPF...


 SOUTHEAST KANSAS:  NONE 

 SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE

 NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE
 
 SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE
 
 PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE
 
 NORTH TEXAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE

 SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE

JLM

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