ZCZC OKCHMDTUR
TTAA00 KTUR 151426 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
925 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 1997  

...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...     

...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN DURING THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE RADAR-INDICATED TOTALS WERE LESS THAN 
ONE-HALF INCH...A FEW AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE BASIN...EAST OF A JOPLIN-FORT
SMITH-LITTLE ROCK LINE RECEIVED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION WAS NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK WHERE
RADAR INDICATED MORE THAN TWO INCHES OCCURRED.
SOME OF THE HIGHER OBSERVED 24 HOUR REPORTS INCLUDE:
   SCOTLAND AR    2.32
   ALTA VISTA KS  1.61     
   CASSVILLE MO   1.58 
   ALLEN OK       1.50   
   WHITE CITY KS  1.31    
   ODELL AR       1.15   
             
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... 

THIS RAINFALL IS PRODUCING A FEW MINOR WITHIN-BANK RISES ON 
SOME OF THE TRIBUTARIES OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER IN WESTERN 
ARKANSAS AND LITTLE OR NO RISES ELSEWHERE.
THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM NEAR LA JUNTA COLORADO THROUGH 
SYRACUSE KANSAS REMAINS WITHIN A COUPLE OF FEET OF FLOOD AFTER
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.  ALSO THE NORTH FORK OF THE RED RIVER 
THROUGH BURKBURNETT TEXAS REMAINS WITHIN A FEW FEET OF FLOOD
STAGE.

...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE 
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE BASIN.  WITH THIS AFTERNOONS 
HEATING...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO 
INTERACT WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST.  QPF INDICATES A 24 HOUR MAXIMUM OF ONE-HALF
INCH IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS FORECAST RAINFALL WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY 
FLOODING.  THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN TWO INCHES.
BASED ON THESE VALUES...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE
LOW THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
   BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES)
   AND QPF...


 SOUTHEAST KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE

 NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE
 
 SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE
 
 PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE
 
 NORTH TEXAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE

 SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE

JHP


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