ZCZC OKCHMDTUR
TTAA00 KTUR 161423 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
920 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 1997  

...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...     

...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE ABRFC AREA PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVED EAST 
NORTHEAST AND EXTENDED EAST OF A SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI-TULSA
OKLAHOMA-WICHITA FALLS TEXAS LINE.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
(THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH TOTAL) OCCURRED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN
THIS AREA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER...BUT AMOUNTS THERE WERE
LIGHT.
             
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... 

THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY MINOR 
RISES ON SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA.

THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM NEAR LA JUNTA COLORADO THROUGH 
SYRACUSE KANSAS REMAINS WITHIN A COUPLE OF FEET OF FLOOD AFTER
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THERE.
AND THE NORTH FORK OF THE RED RIVER NEAR BURKBURNETT HAS
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY AFTER BEING WITHIN A FEW FEET OF FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK.

...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE
WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER A CAPPING LAYER ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE ABRFC
WITH MAX QPF OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS FORECAST RAINFALL WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY 
FLOODING.  THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN TWO INCHES.
BASED ON THESE VALUES...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE
LOW THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
   BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES)
   AND QPF...


 SOUTHEAST KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS:  NONE

 SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE

 NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE

 SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE
 
 SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE

 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE
 
 PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE
 
 NORTH TEXAS: NONE

 NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE

 SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE

JHP


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