ZCZC OKCHMDTUR TTAA00 KTUR 171449 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 945 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 1997 ...LOW FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ...LOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ABRFC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION... A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RADAR ESTIMATED THE HEAVIEST HIT AREA (GREATER THAN TWO INCHES) WAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN GREAT BEND AND EMPORIA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF MORE THAN THREE INCHES JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT BEND. ALSO...IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MORE THAN TWO INCHES FELL IN AN AREA FROM RAMONA EAST TO THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BORDER WITH AROUND 3.50 INCHES IN THE BIG CABIN AREA. IN GENERAL MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OCCURRED EAST AND NORTH OF A GREAT BEND-BARTLESVILLE OK-BROKEN ARROW OK LINE. ANOTHER LINE OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES) FELL FROM ENID EAST TO BARTLESVILLE. SOME OF THE HIGHER 24 HOUR OBSERVED TOTALS INCLUDE: BIG CABIN OK 3.62 PENSACOLA DAM OK 3.41 MCPHERSON KS 2.65 CLAREMORE OK 2.50 PEABODY KS 2.20 PRYOR OK 2.05 HILLSBORO KS 2.04 COTTONWOOD FALLS KS 2.00 TIFF CITY MO 1.92 VINITA OK 1.92 ELMDALE KS 1.85 DURHAM KS 1.84 EL DORADO KS 1.82 SYCAMORE OK 1.80 MARION KS 1.67 CHALK KS 1.55 CINCINNATI AR 1.54 ROSALIA KS 1.52 ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-HALF FELL IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EAST OF ARDMORE AND NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF CHILDRESS. ...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS... ALL THIS RAINFALL IS PRODUCING SOME MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAM IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT THUS FAR IS NOT PRODUCING ANY RIVER FLOODING. COW CREEK NEAR LYONS IS FORECAST TO RISE WITHIN A FEW FEET OF FLOOD STAGE. ALONG THE VERDIGRIS AND NEOSHO RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM NEAR LA JUNTA COLORADO THROUGH COOLIDGE KANSAS REMAINS WITHIN A COUPLE OF FEET OF FLOOD AFTER LAST WEEKS HEAVY RAINFALL BUT RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THERE. ...FUTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS... THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE ABRFC THROUGH THIS MORNING DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAYS QPF FROM WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES INDICATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST EAST OF A WICHITA-OKLAHOMA CITY-WICHITA FALLS LINE WITH MORE THAN ONE-HALF INCH FORECAST. THE MAXIMUM AREA OF QPF OF ONE TO 1.50 INCH BASIN AVERAGE IS IN OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER AND NORTH AND EAST OF AN ENID TO TULSA LINE. ...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE AREAS OF HIGHER QPF...WILL ADD TO AND/OR EXTEND THE MODERATE RISES OCCURRING FROM THE PAST 24 HOUR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THESE PREDICTED AMOUNTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THUS THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING BASED ON QPF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED AREAS OF ONE INCH AN HOUR IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THESE AREAS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGHER. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BUT IN GENERAL...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ...AREAS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THREE HOUR BASIN FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES (INCHES) AND QPF... SOUTHEAST KANSAS: NONE SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST KANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI: NONE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS: NONE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA: LOCALIZED AREAS MODERATE SUNDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: NONE NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA: NONE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: NONE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE: NONE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS: NONE NORTH TEXAS: NONE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO: NONE SOUTHEAST COLORADO: NONE JHP NNNN