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of Winter 2005-06 Exercise Question 3 |
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3. You decide to check the SPC fire weather outlook in the OK-FIRST Choose Your Threat Fires section:
- What are the ingredients that are mentioned for the increased fire danger?
- What are some surface features that may play a role in wind shifts today?
- What are the expected relative humidity values in your part of Oklahoma today?
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280934
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK PANHANDLES / SRN KS/ WRN OK ...
... SYNOPSIS ...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ... WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW TO THE WEST AHEAD OF DE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THUS PREVAIL FROM NEB SWD INTO TX. RH LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE FROM ERN TX INTO FAR ERN OK AND INTO AR WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES WITH CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON RH BUT LIGHT WINDS.
... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK PANHANDLES / ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES / LOW RH / MDT SWLY WINDS / DROUGHT
IT WILL BECOME VERY WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA REACHING 80 DEGREES OR WARMER. SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP RH LEVELS LOW ... RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER CO AND NM TO 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS E CENTRAL KS AND OK. LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING HIGH TO THE SE TO CAUSE SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. A FEW AREAS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK MAY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
... NEB / NERN CO / NRN KS ...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY ... THE MITIGATING FACTORS BEING WEAKER WINDS WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRIEST. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY ... SOME AREAS SUCH AS SERN WY AND FAR WRN NEB HAVE HAD RECENT SNOW MELT WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE GROUND MOIST. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH. EVEN SO ... GIVEN EXTREME DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ... A GRASS FIRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LESS THAN IN CRITICAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
... SERN STATES ...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES OVER SRN AL FL GA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S. AVERAGE RH WILL BE FROM 20-25 PERCENT ... EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR 35 PERCENT INLAND S FL. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY ... WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT UNDER 10 MPH. IN ADDITION ... KBDI VALUES OVER THE REGION ARE NOT VERY HIGH SUGGESTING LIMITED THREAT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SRN FL WITH VALUES OVER 500 ... BUT RH VALUES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW THERE.
... NERN AZ INTO FAR WRN NM ...
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND MAY COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ... BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES. SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ... WITH RH VALUES 15-20 PERCENT. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL HOWEVER ... WITH SOME RAIN FORECAST LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 02/28/2006
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