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of Winter 2005-06 Exercise Question 6 |
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6.You made it through Tuesday the 28th okay. Now it's Wednesday March 1st, again 8:30. Let's read your morning briefing products.
- What are your primary threats today?
- Do the "DAY ONE" WFO hazard and the SPC Outlook agree?
- What afternoon conditions are forecast?
- Are there any new surface features that may complicate the situation?
| WFO Norman Hazardous Weather Outlook | SPC Fire Weather Outlook |
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 700 AM CST WED MAR 1 2006 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011300- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 700 AM CST WED MAR 1 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN ... WESTERN ... CENTRAL ... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE ... TODAY AND TONIGHT ... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ... NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DISCUSSION ... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PROBABILITY TABLE ... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY MAR 2. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA ... 0 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER ... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN ... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER ... FIRE DANGER WILL REACH EXTREME TODAY DUE TO THE HEAT AND STRONGER WINDS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY. $$ |
 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NM/WEST TX/MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR ... ... SYNOPSIS ... EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WEST COAST ... WHILE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ... WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - EASTERN NM/WEST TX/MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR ... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WIND SHIFT A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ... LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A WIND SHIFT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ... MUCH OF OK ... AND SOUTHERN KS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ... WITH STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ... AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM/EXTREME WEST TX. AMPLE MIXING/DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 IN SOME LOCALES. ... FL AND SOUTHERN GA ... PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR FL AND SOUTHERN GA. HOWEVER ... INCREASINGLY MOIST TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME DEWPOINT/RH IMPROVEMENT TODAY ... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA. RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS AND MARGINAL KBDI VALUES SUGGEST LIMITED FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD POTENTIAL. ... NEB/EASTERN CO/NORTHERN KS ... RATHER STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY ... WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. ALTHOUGH A QUICK SPREAD OF ANY GRASSFIRES WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES ... GENERAL MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE FUELS IN CONTRAST TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. ..GUYER.. 03/01/2006 |
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