Answer to Question 15

Fire Weather and the Oklahoma Fire Danger Model
Answer to Question 15

Question 15. Review the NGM MOS Guidance for the station of your choice. MOS guidance provides a good "first guess" forecast for coming days. Based on MOS guidance, do you expect the fire danger near your chosen station to worsen, lessen, or stay the same?

Answer. Based on MOS guidance, the fire danger near Oklahoma City will lessen. Although the relative humidity remains nearly the same over the forecast period, the forecasted high temperature decreases from 97 to 93 and the wind speeds are forecasted to diminish, which will help lessen the fire danger.

The high relative humidity values coupled with weak winds were forecasted to produce very poor dispersion conditions near the end of the period. Therefore, if a fire were to start, smoke and other particulate matter would not diffuse well.

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