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of August 13-15, 2005 Answer to Question 2 |
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2. It is now 8:30 pm on August 13th. There are still heavy rainshowers in parts of Oklahoma. The severe threat has diminished, according to the National Weather Service. Examine the latest forecast discussion, released earlier in the afternoon by the Norman WFO.
- What are the major threats mentioned in the forecast discussion?
- What are some issues of uncertainty, according to the forecaster?
- Why is the position of the surface front important to track?
- What datasets can you use to track it?
Answer.
- The forecast discussion mentions thunderstorms, flooding and heavy rains as threats.
- One issue of uncertainty is the ultimate position of the surface front, which is important because it can serve as a focusing mechanism for convection:
- "BUT EVENTUAL POSITION OF EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE REDIRECTED BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTION"
- "SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH RAIN/SHOWERS/TSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS NEAR AND N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY"
- "ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE FRONT REMAINS LIKELY TO SAG S TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY SUN NIGHT...ETA LIFTS IT BACK N INTO CENTRAL OK ROUGHLY NEAR I-40 ON MON AND SHIFTS THE PRECIP AXIS UP INTO N OK. HARD TO SEE THIS HAPPENING IF CONVECTION PERSISTS N OF THE FRONT"
- Surface fronts, like other surface features, can be tracked using five-minute data from the Oklahoma Mesonet.
The Bottom Line:
- A good forecast discussion will identify threats, place them on the map for you, and let you know about forecaster concerns with hazards and uncertainty.
- Forecast discussions provide tremendous detail about the range of possibilities that can threaten your jurisdiction, the level of confidence in the current forecast, and the placement and timing of certain features related to hazardous weather.
