|
of August 13-15, 2005 Exercise Question 7 |
|
7. The rains continued into the afternoon and died down by 5pm. Examine the 48-hour rainfall totals, the latest Flash-Flood Guidance, and the forecast discussion from the Norman WFO.
- What portions of Oklahoma received the most rainfall?
- How have the guidance values changed in this region, compared to those from the day before?
- What are the main hazards facing southwestern and southern Oklahoma?
-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005
.DISCUSSION...
NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...
POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR EXCESSIVE/FLOODING RAINS. PRIMARY THREAT
HAS SHIFTED S INTO OUR S AND E ZONES WHERE MOST OF THE ACTION HAS
BEEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO REMAIN VERY
HIGH - 2-2.5 INCHES. VARIABLES TO CONTEND WITH TODAY INCLUDE THE
WELL-DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR THE SW CORNER OF NM...AND
WHICH OF TWO EXISTING SFC BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS.
SURFACE FRONT HAS REMAINED REMARKABLY WELL DEFINED - AND REMARKABLY
STATIONARY - ACROSS OK FROM NEAR BVO TO JUST NW OF OKC TO NEAR LTS.
IT HAS MOVED ACROSS ONLY 1 OR 2 MESONET SITES SINCE 7AM. WE SUSPECT
THAT THE OTHER BOUNDARY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX
INTO AR...WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER TONIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM NEAR
SW NM...WHICH SEEMS TO BE POORLY INITIALIZED BY THE MODELS...MOVES
SLOWLY NE TONIGHT IT WILL HELP REIGNITE CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF
THE OUFLOW BOUNDARY. THAT MAY WELL HAPPEN ANYWAY IN RESPONSE TO
PROGGED BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS TX INTO THE BOUNDARY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
ACROSS N TX AND SCENTRAL/SE OK. BUT...SINCE THE RESILIENT SFC
FRONT IS STILL LYING FARTHER N AND MAY REMAIN IN OR NEAR CENTRAL
OK...THERE REMAINS A RISK OF HEAVY CONVECTION REDEVELOPING FARTHER
N TONIGHT. WE THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ONLY EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TO EXPAND IT A LITTLE FARTHER NE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/ECENTRAL OK WHERE SOME AREAS PICKED UP 2+ INCHES
EARLIER TODAY.
