NWS Forecast Discussions

NWS Forecasts Discussions
WFO Amarillo	WFO Norman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 453 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005 STORMS AND THEIR PARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRINGING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER TO THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS YESTERDAY HELD TEMPS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ... PREVENTING THE FRONT FROM RETURNING NORTH AS HAD BEEN FORECAST. TODAY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ... ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN CLOUDED IN ... WITH NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA ... COULD SEE MUCH OF THE SAME PRECIP SITUATION OVERNIGHT TOMORROW. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST ... WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ... INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS THE WAVE PASSES ... A VERY STRONG COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA. FREEZING RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ... WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THIS IN MIND ... HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BREAK OUT THE PARKAS WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES IN ... AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL STEADILY ALL DAY THEREAFTER. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT ... SHOULD SEE ANY PRECIP END BY NOON ... AND SKIES CLEAR UP A BIT. SURFACE RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND.	AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 332 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005 WE ARE STICKING WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE FRONT IS HERE TO STAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY RETURN NORTH. HENCE, A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED BY LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT'S AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY HAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS EFFECTIVE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS EXPECTED LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKE IT'S PREDECESSOR. THE FINAL ROUND OF RAIN WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, INITIATED AND SUSTAINED PRIMARILY BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OK, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS EFFECTIVE FROM NOON TUESDAY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE REASON FOR THE WATCH AS THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CHANGE TO SNOW UPON ENDING IN THE NORTH. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR TO OK TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION ENDS, ENDING THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 330 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT PNHDLS EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. QSTNRY FRONT SITUATED IN A NW TO SE FASHION ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN ... FROM ABOUT KCAO TO KBGD TO S OF KCSM. QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT THIS AFTN WITH ONLY 30S NERN ZNS AND MID 50S SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE HEADACHES TEMPWISE FOR TNGT AND TUES UNTIL GETTING A PUSH SWD TUE EVENING AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS SURGING SWD INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND NE THRU WED MORNING ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROF OVER WRN US. FOR TNGT ... RAISED POPS TO LIKELY MOST PLACES EXCEPT OK PNHDL AND EXTRM NERN TX PNHDL AS A VORT MAX AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW HEADS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WELL. KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID EXCEPT NEAR KS/OK STATE LINE WHERE A MENTION OF FRZG RAIN WAS PLACED IN GRIDS TOWARDS TUE MORNING. SFC STNRY FRONT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS TUE. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN ALL AREAS ... ESPECICALLY NRN AND NERN ZNS SINCE THEY SHOULD BE N OF THE FRONT. S OF FRONT TEMPS WARMER. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL ALSO GOVERN TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL ZNS TUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES SURGING NEWD AND UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. VERY TOUGH CALL ON WHERE FRONT WILL END UP BEING LATE TUE AFTN. DID NOT LIKE THE GFS RENDITION OF HOLDING COLD AIR UP IN KS UNTIL VERY LATE TUE NIGHT. ETA TYPICALLY DOES BETTER WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGES DOWN THE PLAINS AND ... CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT IS NOW IN CO AND KS ... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH ETA MET MOS TEMPS TUE NIGHT AND WED. PMDHMD DISCUSSION ALSO LEANED WITH ETA HANDLING OF THIS AIRMASS. THAT BEING SAID ... LOWERED TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. ALSO RAISED POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS CORE OF UPPER LOW HEADS INTO THE REGION. DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS ... THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS FRZG RAIN MAINLY FOR TUE NIGHT ... PSBLY SOME SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE EVENT ENDS VERY LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. AS SUCH ... HAVE EMPHASIZED FRZG RAIN AND SLEET IN GRIDS BUT NOT SO MUCH SNOW. BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED N OF FCST AREA IN KS. WILL RETAIN WINTER STORM WATCH SAME AREA FOR TUE NIGHT. CONSIDERED EXPANDING SWD DUE TO PSBLTY THAT ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES AND COLD AIR GETS TO SRN TX PNHDL QUICKER. INSTEAD ... WILL DEFER THAT TO LATER SHIFTS TO PONDER OVER. AS A COMPROMISE ... HAVE FRZG RAIN AND ICE PELLETS MENTIONED IN SRN TX PNHDL LATER TUE NIGHT. UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY LATE WED MORNING WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE MORNING ... PRECIP TYPE MAINLY ALL SNOW BY THAT TIME. VERY COLD ON WED AND WED NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AGAIN MANY PLACES. THESE TEMPS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY ICING OR MINOR SNOW COVER THAT MAY EXIST ... AND COULD CONCEIVABLY BE EVEN COLDER DEPENDING ON EXTEND OF FRZG/FROZEN PRECIP.	AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 320 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATED ... WITH FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF FA. A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS OF CWA AND PART OF TX ZONES. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNITE ... ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN OK/W N TX AS WAA DEVELOPS AND UPR DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS TX. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS TONITE ACROSS APPROX SE QUARTER TO THIRD OF FA WHERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD. WILL CONT FLOOD WATCH FOR TONITE. WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TONITE. BNDRY COULD LIFT NORTH SOMEWHAT TUES WITH THE STRONG WAA OF THE MOIST AIR. HOWEVER ... WITH RAIN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT ... HOW FAR NORTH BNDRY WILL MOVE IS DIFFICULT AND MAKES ANOTHER STRONG TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS FA. SEVERE TSTMS ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS THAT END UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATE TUES AFTN THRU WED WHEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OK. AS REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ... PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MIX WITH SLEET IN SOME AREAS BEFORE ENDING. HOW FAR SOUTH FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN BUT THE FROZEN PRECIP COULD MAKE IT INTO THE OKC METRO BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING WED AFTN. MODELS CONT TO BE WARMER IN LOW LVLS COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BELIEVE MAINTAIN THIS BIAS THE THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOONER THAN MODELS INDICATE. DUE TO THE POOR HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SHALLOW AIRMASS BY THE MODELS HAVE DEVIATED FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END WED AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUES INTO WED. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONT TO MONITOR AS DETAILS DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MODIFICATION OF AREAL COVERAGE AND UPGRADE TO WARNING.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...UPDATED 1200 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005 .UPDATE... UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT MAINLY THE EASTERN ZONES. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW WHAT WAS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY. HOWEVER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REMAINING PRETTY CLOSE TOGETHER ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION IS SEEN ON RADAR MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY HELP TO BREAK UP THE FOG A LITTLE ... HOWEVER OF MUCH MORE CONCERN IS THE FACT THE THE TEMPS ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD BECOME A FREEZING RAIN CONCERN SHOULD THE PRECIP MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.	AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED 920 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 850 MB WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ... PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 13C JUST TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITIES COULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A COUPLE STORMS APPROACHING MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS THROUGH TUESDAY ... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST MAY FACE THE LARGEST RISK TONIGHT DUE TO LARGE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL TOTALS. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE WATCH MAY NOT BE IN AS MUCH RISK TONIGHT ... BUT COULD SEE THE THREAT THERE INCREASE TOMORROW ... ESPECIALLY IF AN INCH OR SO FALLS TONIGHT. MEANHILE ... SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA COULD ALSO SEE SOME DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE STRONGEST ... BUT FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER THERE FOR NOW DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL THUS FAR. LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ... WITH STILL SOME RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. BETTER CHANCE FOR ICY WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED 1125 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 UPDATING FORECASTS TO BACK THE START OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THERE MIGHT BE JUST A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME FREEZING PCPN EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A WHILE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER ... LOOK AT THE NEW RUC LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS FOR TUESDAY SUGGEST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING ... AND IN FACT TEMPS MAY START FALLING EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. RUC HAS BEEN HANDLING THE LOWER LEVEL TEMP AND WIND FIELDS MUCH BETTER THAN THE ETA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE CLUELESS WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND FRONTAL POSITION EVEN AT INITIALIZATION TIMES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 420 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005 VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING TODAY. RELATIVELY STATIONARY COLD AIR MASS IS SITUATED ACROSS PANHANDLES ... WITH THE FREEZING LINE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAY SAW LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY OWING TO CLOUD COVER ... AND TODAY LOOKS MUCH THE SAME. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ... FREEZING RAIN MAY BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING ... SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES BEGINNING NOW TO INCLUDE THIS THREAT. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ... BRINGING MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER NORTH TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME WARMUP ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH LIFT EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ... COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT. THE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE MASKS A VERY WARM 850 TO 700MB LAYER. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ... SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ... BRINGING A RAPID COOLDOWN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS THE WARM LAYER IS ERODED. WITH THIS IN MIND ... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES IS CONTINUED UNTIL 6AM WEDNESDAY ... AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN ... SLEET AND SNOW IS ALSO IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 6PM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT ... SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES 6PM TUESDAY TO 6AM WEDNESDAY.	AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 418 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005 MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE OUN CWA TODAY/TONITE/WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AND AN ICE STORM ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FIRST ROUND OF AUTO-HOCKEY 2005 EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NW OKLAHOMA AS INITIAL LOBE OF PRECIP ROTATES NWD INTO AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING. DESPITE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INSISTANCE THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT BACK NWD TODAY..THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TEMP GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SAG EVER-SO-SLOWLY SWD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED COLDER/DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO OOZE SWD INTO MUCH OF NW OK..WITH SFC FREEZING LINE FROM PONCA CITY/ENID/WATONGA/CHEYENNE AT 4 AM. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED ALL OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS OF ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR BACK INTO RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION FROM SOURCE REGION IN CENT KS CONTINUES. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY TODAY..WITH TEMPS THEN TAKING A NOSE DIVE TONITE/WED MORNING WITH DEEPER/STRONGER SURGE OF ARCITC AIR. LIKELY TO BE 2 MAIN PERIODS OF LIFT..ONE FROM NOW THRU THIS MORNING..AND A SECOND AND LONGER LIVED/STRONGER PERIOD FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONITE. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OK FOR TODAY THRU MIDDAY WED. ONSET OF ICING MAYBE DELAYED OVER FAR SE SECTIONS OF WARNING AREA THAT ARE CURRENTLY AT 32/33 DEGREES..BUT BY 00Z THIS EVE..ALL AREAS IN THE WARNING SHUD BE ACTIVE. HAVE ALSO HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES TO THE SE OF THE WARNING AREA FOR TONITE/WED MORNING..AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO WED AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS OKC NWD TO PNC. EXPECT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN /PERHAPS SOME TSFZRA/ WITH ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR CHANGE OVER TO -SN/-IP RIGHT AT THE END. SFC TEMPS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FREEZING MAY SAVE MANY AREAS FROM TRULY DEVASTATING ICE ACCUMS..BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH ICE ACCUMS. SWEET SPOT IN OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE FROM GAGE/BUFFALO AREAS EWD TO WOODWARD.. ENID AND MEDFORD. SE THIRD OF CWA IS LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF TSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THRU TODAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT .. SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TONITE FOR AREAS WHERE IT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN 2-4 INCHES SINCE YDAY.