The Winter Weather Events of January 3-5, 2005 Exercise Question 1 Case Study Page Event Data Next Question

1. Look at these four forecasts from local NWS forecast offices for the bordering counties of Hemphill (TX) and Roger Mills (OK). Forecasts valid for Tuesday, Jan 4 are highlighted in bold-blue. Forecasts valid for Wednesday, Jan 5 are highlighted in bold-green. For a given time, what differences do you notice between the two counties? For a given county, what differences do you notice from one forecast to the next? Why do you think two neighboring counties can get substantially different forecasts? Why do you think each county's forecast changes noticably from one forecast to the next?

HEMPHILL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANADIAN 400 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH 6PM TUESDAY TO 6AM WEDNESDAY... .TUESDAY...A 60 PCT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PCT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PCT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. BREEZY...COOLER. MORNING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 13. ROGER MILLS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEYENNE 400 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PCT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN LIKELY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PCT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PCT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HEMPHILL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANADIAN 345 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT... .TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH .TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY...COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PCT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PCT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ROGER MILLS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEYENNE 354 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .TUESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PCT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. RAIN THEN LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PCT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 4 TO 9 AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HEMPHILL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANADIAN 812 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT... .TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PCT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PCT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ROGER MILLS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEYENNE 633 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005 ...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .TUESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PCT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. RAIN THEN LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PCT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 4 TO 9 AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HEMPHILL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANADIAN 400 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005 ...WINTER STORM WARNING EFFECTIVE 6PM TUESDAY TO 6AM WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PCT CHANCE OF SNOW THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ROGER MILLS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEYENNE 354 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005 ...ICE STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AREAS OF FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AREAS OF FOG. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 7 TO 12. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. COLDER. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PCT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 6. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

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