|
of August 13-15, 2005 Exercise Question 2 |
|
2. It is now 8:30 pm on August 13th. There are still heavy rainshowers in parts of Oklahoma. The severe threat has diminished, according to the National Weather Service. Examine the latest forecast discussion, released earlier in the afternoon by the Norman WFO.
- What are the major threats mentioned in the forecast discussion?
- What are some issues of uncertainty, according to the forecaster?
- Why is the position of the surface front important to track?
- What datasets can you use to track it?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - THINGS GOING MUCH ACCORDING TO PLAN
OVERALL...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LARGER-SCALE FEATURES. MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL ON TAP FOR A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. SFC FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW OK WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT...BUT EVENTUAL POSITION OF
EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE REDIRECTED BY EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION. STORMS AT THE MOMENT ARE BEHAVING MORE OR LESS AS
EXPECTED...MORE NUMEROUS CLOSER TO FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NW
OK...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS/TSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS NEAR AND N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.
POPS ARE RAISED AND EXPANDED BASED ON LATEST MODEL QPFS...BUT STILL
FIND IT HARD TO GO MUCH OVER 70PCT LOCALLY DUE TO PREVAILING
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT ACROSS N OK
WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN PAINTING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY AND WARRANT A
SRIPE OF CATEGORICAL POPS THAT FITS IN WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS.
12Z ETA RUN-TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS
BY LATE MON ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OK...SUPPORTED BY POOLING OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE SOAKED UP WELL IN MOST
AREAS DUE TO RECENT DRY WX BUT STILL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
PROBLEMS WHEREVER TRAINING RESULTS IN TOO MUCH RAIN TOO FAST. TEMPS
MAY BE THE TOUGHEST PART OF THIS FCST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD SOME AREAS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
FRONT REMAINS LIKELY TO SAG S TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY SUN
NIGHT...ETA LIFTS IT BACK N INTO CENTRAL OK ROUGHLY NEAR I-40 ON MON
AND SHIFTS THE PRECIP AXIS UP INTO N OK. HARD TO SEE THIS HAPPENING
IF CONVECTION PERSISTS N OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP MUCH
OF OUR S/SE IN CHANCE-TYPE POPS ON MONDAY.
