The Winter Weather Events
of January 3-5, 2005
Answer to Question 13
Case Study
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Event Data
Previous Question


It is now the morning of the 5th. The precipitation has continued strongly throughout the morning. At 6:00 am new soundings were released. Examine the radiosondes (soundings) from Norman and Dodge City.

  • What type of precipitation do each of these soundings suggest? Are there discrepancies between the locations?
  • What kind of precip would you expect closer to Dodge City? Closer to Norman?



Answer.

  • The Dodge City sounding shows sub-freezing temperatures throughout the atmosphere. If precip occurs it will likely be snow.
  • The Norman sounding still shows a significant warm nose from 900 mb up to 700 mb. This will melt any snow falling into the region. However, the lowest few thousand feet are below freezing, suggesting a precipitation type of freezing rain.
  • Based on these soundings, it would be resonable to expect a freezing rain to sleet to snow transition from Norman to Dodge City, as the freezing layer gets deeper and the warm nose diminishes.
  • Based on these soundings, it would be resonable to expect a freezing rain to sleet to snow transition from Norman to Dodge City, as the freezing layer gets deeper and the warm nose diminishes.
  • The forecast discussions from Dodge and Norman agree with your assessment:

    Dodge City Forecast Discussion
    3:20 am Jan 5, 2005     		Norman Forecast Discussion
    4:06 am Jan 5, 2005
    THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL THIS MORNING AND TIMING THE END OF THE SNOW DURING THE DAY.
    		 PRECIP TYPE HAS CHANGED TO SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE NW THIRD OF OK AS MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR HAS SURGED SWD.

The Bottom Line.

  • Winter weather forecasting is very challenging and there will be errors, even from the best forecasters.
  • Use the tools you have in front of you to help keep up with rapidly-changing situations!

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